{"id":15035,"date":"2025-08-13T16:41:52","date_gmt":"2025-08-13T16:41:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/?p=15035"},"modified":"2025-08-13T16:41:52","modified_gmt":"2025-08-13T16:41:52","slug":"ung-dung-kinh-nghiem-quan-ly-tai-nguyen-nuoc-o-dbscl-viet-nam-vao-giai-quyet-bai-toan-xam-nhap-man-tren-lvs-cauto-cong-hoa-cuba-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/ung-dung-kinh-nghiem-quan-ly-tai-nguyen-nuoc-o-dbscl-viet-nam-vao-giai-quyet-bai-toan-xam-nhap-man-tren-lvs-cauto-cong-hoa-cuba-2\/","title":{"rendered":"\u1ee8ng d\u1ee5ng kinh nghi\u1ec7m qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean n\u01b0\u1edbc \u1edf \u0110BSCL (Vi\u1ec7t Nam) v\u00e0o gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft b\u00e0i to\u00e1n x\u00e2m nh\u1eadp m\u1eb7n tr\u00ean LVS Cauto C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a Cuba"},"content":{"rendered":"

L\u01b0u v\u1ef1c s\u00f4ng Cauto \u2013 d\u00f2ng s\u00f4ng d\u00e0i nh\u1ea5t v\u00e0 c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a r\u1ea5t l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi an ninh l\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ef1c qu\u1ed1c gia c\u1ee7a Cuba \u2013 \u0111ang \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c ch\u01b0a t\u1eebng c\u00f3 do t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng k\u00e9p c\u1ee7a bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i kh\u00ed h\u1eadu v\u00e0 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n kinh t\u1ebf – x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i. V\u1edbi chi\u1ec1u d\u00e0i h\u01a1n 340 km, b\u1eaft ngu\u1ed3n t\u1eeb d\u00e3y Sierra Maestra v\u00e0 ch\u1ea3y qua b\u1ed1n t\u1ec9nh tr\u1ecdng \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p l\u00e0 Granma, Holguin, Santiago de Cuba v\u00e0 Las Tunas, l\u01b0u v\u1ef1c n\u00e0y cung c\u1ea5p n\u01b0\u1edbc t\u01b0\u1edbi v\u00e0 sinh ho\u1ea1t cho kho\u1ea3ng 10% d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 c\u1ea3 n\u01b0\u1edbc. Tuy nhi\u00ean, trong nh\u1eefng th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, khu v\u1ef1c n\u00e0y li\u00ean t\u1ee5c tr\u1ea3i qua c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t h\u1ea1n h\u00e1n nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t trong m\u00f9a kh\u00f4 t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 11 \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e1ng 4 h\u00e0ng n\u0103m. D\u00f9 c\u00f3 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u01b0a trung b\u00ecnh l\u00ean t\u1edbi 1.200 mm m\u1ed7i n\u0103m, h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng l\u01b0u tr\u1eef v\u00e0 ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i n\u01b0\u1edbc xu\u1ed1ng c\u1ea5p khi\u1ebfn v\u00f9ng n\u00e0y th\u01b0\u1eddng xuy\u00ean l\u00e2m v\u00e0o t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng thi\u1ebfu n\u01b0\u1edbc tr\u1ea7m tr\u1ecdng.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
L\u01b0u v\u1ef1c s\u00f4ng Cauto (C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a Cuba)
\u1ea2nh: Vi\u1ec7n Khoa h\u1ecdc t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean n\u01b0\u1edbc, B\u1ed9 N\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p v\u00e0 M\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u1ea2nh: Vi\u1ec7n Khoa h\u1ecdc t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean n\u01b0\u1edbc, B\u1ed9 N\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p v\u00e0 M\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng<\/em><\/p>\n

Trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh d\u1eef li\u1ec7u \u0111o \u0111\u1ea1c kh\u00ed t\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u1ea1i Cuba c\u00f2n r\u1ea5t h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf, nh\u00f3m nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u do TS.Tr\u1ea7n Anh Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u00e0 ThS.Tr\u1ea7n B\u1ea3o Chung – Vi\u1ec7n Khoa h\u1ecdc t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean n\u01b0\u1edbc, B\u1ed9 T\u00e0i nguy\u00ean v\u00e0 M\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng (nay l\u00e0 B\u1ed9 N\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p v\u00e0 M\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng) \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n \u201cNghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u hi\u1ec7n tr\u1ea1ng ngu\u1ed3n n\u01b0\u1edbc m\u1eb7t v\u00e0 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o x\u00e2m nh\u1eadp m\u1eb7n t\u1ea1i l\u01b0u v\u1ef1c s\u00f4ng Cauto l\u00e0m c\u01a1 s\u1edf \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t c\u00e1c gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t l\u00faa g\u1ea1o v\u00e0 c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n c\u1ea5p n\u01b0\u1edbc cho ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n\u201d<\/strong>, m\u00e3 s\u1ed1 N\u0110T.100.CU\/21, nhi\u1ec7m v\u1ee5 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tri\u1ec3n khai trong khu\u00f4n kh\u1ed5 Ngh\u1ecb \u0111\u1ecbnh th\u01b0 h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c v\u1edbi Cuba, kinh ph\u00ed nhi\u1ec7m v\u1ee5 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00e0i tr\u1ee3 th\u00f4ng qua V\u0103n ph\u00f2ng c\u00e1c Ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh khoa h\u1ecdc v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 qu\u1ed1c gia, B\u1ed9 Khoa h\u1ecdc v\u00e0 C\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 (nay l\u00e0 Qu\u1ef9 Ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n khoa h\u1ecdc v\u00e0 v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 Qu\u1ed1c gia, B\u1ed9 Khoa h\u1ecdc v\u00e0 C\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7).<\/p>\n

Nhi\u1ec7m v\u1ee5 \u1ee9ng d\u1ee5ng ngu\u1ed3n d\u1eef li\u1ec7u m\u01b0a v\u1ec7 tinh CHIRPS v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ph\u00e2n gi\u1ea3i cao, k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh b\u1eb1ng s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u t\u1eeb c\u00e1c tr\u1ea1m \u0111o t\u1ea1i ch\u1ed7, \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m h\u1ea1n h\u00e1n trong kh\u00f4ng gian v\u00e0 th\u1eddi gian tr\u00ean to\u00e0n l\u01b0u v\u1ef1c. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch t\u00ednh to\u00e1n ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 h\u1ea1n h\u00e1n SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) \u1edf ba th\u00e1ng th\u1eddi gian 3, 6 v\u00e0 9 th\u00e1ng trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 1981\u20132023, nh\u00f3m nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u \u0111\u00e3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u00f5 chu k\u1ef3, c\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed9 v\u00e0 ph\u1ea1m vi \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t h\u1ea1n. K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 cho th\u1ea5y t\u1ea7n su\u1ea5t h\u1ea1n h\u00e1n trung b\u00ecnh trong to\u00e0n v\u00f9ng dao \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1eeb 15 \u0111\u1ebfn 17% t\u1ed5ng th\u1eddi gian, trong \u0111\u00f3 c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t h\u1ea1n nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t x\u1ea3y ra v\u00e0o c\u00e1c n\u0103m 1988, 1992, 1998 v\u00e0 \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 n\u0103m 2004\u20132005 v\u1edbi ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 SPI xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi \u22122, ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n kh\u00f4 h\u1ea1n c\u1ef1c \u0111oan.<\/p>\n

\u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00e1ng l\u01b0u \u00fd l\u00e0 h\u1ea1n h\u00e1n kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 di\u1ec5n ra th\u01b0\u1eddng xuy\u00ean m\u00e0 c\u00f2n c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gia t\u0103ng m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng v\u00e0o m\u00f9a kh\u00f4. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea b\u1eb1ng ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p Mann\u2013Kendall cho th\u1ea5y c\u00f3 d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u gi\u1ea3m d\u1ea7n c\u1ee7a ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 SPI trong c\u00e1c th\u00e1ng m\u00f9a kh\u00f4, trong khi c\u00e1c th\u00e1ng m\u00f9a m\u01b0a c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng \u1ea9m h\u01a1n \u2013 m\u1ed9t minh ch\u1ee9ng r\u00f5 r\u1ec7t cho s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i c\u1ee7a ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 m\u01b0a d\u01b0\u1edbi t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i kh\u00ed h\u1eadu to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. Kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 d\u1eebng l\u1ea1i \u1edf nh\u1eadn di\u1ec7n c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t h\u1ea1n, nh\u00f3m nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u c\u00f2n ph\u00e2n t\u00edch s\u00e2u s\u1eafc v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t theo \u0111\u1ecba h\u00ecnh, trong \u0111\u00f3 c\u00e1c khu v\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ed3ng b\u1eb1ng \u1edf h\u1ea1 l\u01b0u ch\u1ecbu h\u1ea1n k\u00e9o d\u00e0i v\u00e0 c\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed9 cao h\u01a1n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi v\u00f9ng \u0111\u1ed3i n\u00fai ph\u00eda th\u01b0\u1ee3ng ngu\u1ed3n.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ec3 c\u00f3 c\u00e1i nh\u00ecn to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n h\u01a1n v\u1ec1 hi\u1ec7n tr\u1ea1ng t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean n\u01b0\u1edbc, nh\u00f3m t\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh t\u00edch h\u1ee3p gi\u1eefa SWAT (m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng th\u1ee7y v\u0103n) v\u00e0 WEAP (ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 ngu\u1ed3n n\u01b0\u1edbc) nh\u1eb1m \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7 chu tr\u00ecnh cung \u2013 c\u1ea7u \u2013 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng n\u01b0\u1edbc tr\u00ean to\u00e0n l\u01b0u v\u1ef1c, c\u1ea3 trong hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i v\u00e0 theo k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103m 2050. C\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng cho th\u1ea5y t\u1ed5ng nhu c\u1ea7u s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng n\u01b0\u1edbc hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a l\u01b0u v\u1ef1c s\u00f4ng Cauto kho\u1ea3ng 1.194 tri\u1ec7u m\u00e9t kh\u1ed1i m\u1ed7i n\u0103m, trong \u0111\u00f3 96% d\u00e0nh cho n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p \u2013 ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu l\u00e0 c\u00e2y l\u00faa v\u00e0 c\u00e2y tr\u1ed3ng c\u1ea1n. Nhu c\u1ea7u n\u01b0\u1edbc cho sinh ho\u1ea1t v\u00e0 ch\u0103n nu\u00f4i ch\u1ec9 chi\u1ebfm l\u1ea7n l\u01b0\u1ee3t 3% v\u00e0 1%. Tuy nhi\u00ean, \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u1eefa th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 21, t\u1ed5ng nhu c\u1ea7u n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o t\u0103ng l\u00ean 1.394 tri\u1ec7u m\u00e9t kh\u1ed1i m\u1ed7i n\u0103m (t\u0103ng 16,6%), do di\u1ec7n t\u00edch canh t\u00e1c m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng theo \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01b0\u1edbng ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n kinh t\u1ebf n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p, trong khi d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u1ea3m nh\u1eb9.<\/p>\n

\u1ede chi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, ngu\u1ed3n cung n\u01b0\u1edbc kh\u00f4ng nh\u1eefng kh\u00f4ng t\u0103ng m\u00e0 c\u00f2n gi\u1ea3m nh\u1eb9 (kho\u1ea3ng 2,5%) do hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng b\u1ed1c h\u01a1i m\u1ea1nh h\u01a1n, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t trong m\u00f9a m\u01b0a \u2013 h\u1ec7 qu\u1ea3 t\u1ea5t y\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a xu th\u1ebf nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng. K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 l\u00e0 t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng m\u1ea5t c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng n\u01b0\u1edbc ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng, v\u1edbi t\u1ed5ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t t\u0103ng t\u1eeb 172 tri\u1ec7u m\u00e9t kh\u1ed1i trong hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i l\u00ean t\u1edbi 262 tri\u1ec7u m\u00e9t kh\u1ed1i v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2050, t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng h\u01a1n 52%. C\u00e1c v\u00f9ng c\u00f3 nguy c\u01a1 thi\u1ebfu n\u01b0\u1edbc cao nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 ti\u1ec3u l\u01b0u v\u1ef1c SB3 v\u00e0 SB12 thu\u1ed9c v\u00f9ng Bayamo \u2013 n\u01a1i t\u1eadp trung s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t l\u00faa g\u1ea1o v\u1edbi nhu c\u1ea7u n\u01b0\u1edbc r\u1ea5t l\u1edbn.<\/p>\n

Tr\u00ean c\u01a1 s\u1edf c\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 n\u00e0y, nh\u00f3m nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t lo\u1ea1t gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p c\u00f3 t\u00ednh \u1ee9ng d\u1ee5ng cao cho qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean n\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0 th\u00edch \u1ee9ng v\u1edbi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i kh\u00ed h\u1eadu t\u1ea1i Cuba. Tr\u01b0\u1edbc h\u1ebft, c\u1ea7n ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng vi\u1ec7c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh t\u00edch h\u1ee3p nh\u01b0 SWAT\u2013WEAP k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p d\u1eef li\u1ec7u v\u1ec7 tinh CHIRPS, IMERG, ERA5… \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh (DSS) cho c\u00e1c c\u01a1 quan qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd. H\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u00fap d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o s\u1edbm h\u1ea1n h\u00e1n, t\u1ed1i \u01b0u h\u00f3a ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 n\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch m\u00f9a v\u1ee5 ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng cung \u1ee9ng th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf theo th\u1eddi gian th\u1ef1c. B\u00ean c\u1ea1nh \u0111\u00f3, vi\u1ec7c \u01b0u ti\u00ean n\u01b0\u1edbc sinh ho\u1ea1t v\u00e0 ch\u0103n nu\u00f4i trong ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean c\u1ea7n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o trong m\u1ecdi k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n. C\u01a1 c\u1ea5u c\u00e2y tr\u1ed3ng c\u0169ng c\u1ea7n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c r\u00e0 so\u00e1t, h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf tr\u1ed3ng c\u00e1c lo\u1ea1i c\u00e2y y\u00eau c\u1ea7u l\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u01b0\u1edbc l\u1edbn t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c v\u00f9ng c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t cao, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 l\u00faa t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c ti\u1ec3u l\u01b0u v\u1ef1c SB3, SB12, SB4 thu\u1ed9c v\u00f9ng Bayamo.<\/p>\n

M\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec3m nh\u1ea5n \u0111\u00e1ng gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u l\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng d\u1eef li\u1ec7u v\u1ec7 tinh hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh \u0111\u1ec3 thay th\u1ebf m\u1ea1ng l\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111o \u0111\u1ea1c th\u01b0a th\u1edbt, t\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3 m\u1edf ra h\u01b0\u1edbng ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 v\u00e0 chi ph\u00ed th\u1ea5p cho c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n nh\u01b0 Cuba. Nh\u1eefng k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 gi\u00fap qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean n\u01b0\u1edbc c\u1ee7a ri\u00eang Cuba, m\u00e0 c\u00f2n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng cho nhi\u1ec1u l\u01b0u v\u1ef1c s\u00f4ng kh\u00e1c tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi \u0111ang \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1.<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n
\"\"<\/a>
\u0110o\u00e0n c\u00f4ng t\u00e1c c\u1ee7a Cuba do \u00f4ng Javier Toledo Tapanes, Ph\u00f3 Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch
C\u01a1 quan T\u00e0i nguy\u00ean n\u01b0\u1edbc Cuba \u0111\u1ebfn th\u0103m v\u00e0 l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c v\u1edbi B\u1ed9 T\u00e0i nguy\u00ean v\u00e0 M\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng (nay l\u00e0 B\u1ed9 N\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p v\u00e0 M\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u mang t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ed9t ph\u00e1 n\u00e0y m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n n\u1eefa cho th\u1ea5y ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng l\u1edbn c\u1ee7a khoa h\u1ecdc d\u1eef li\u1ec7u v\u00e0 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u00f3a trong gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft c\u00e1c v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi ghi nh\u1eadn \u0111\u00f3ng g\u00f3p n\u1ed5i b\u1eadt c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 khoa h\u1ecdc Vi\u1ec7t Nam trong l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean n\u01b0\u1edbc qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Ngu\u1ed3n: Ph\u00f2ng Qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd nhi\u1ec7m v\u1ee5 H\u1ee3p t\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

L\u01b0u v\u1ef1c s\u00f4ng Cauto \u2013 d\u00f2ng s\u00f4ng d\u00e0i nh\u1ea5t v\u00e0 c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a r\u1ea5t l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi an ninh l\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ef1c qu\u1ed1c gia c\u1ee7a Cuba \u2013 \u0111ang \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c ch\u01b0a t\u1eebng c\u00f3 do t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng k\u00e9p c\u1ee7a bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i kh\u00ed h\u1eadu v\u00e0 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n kinh t\u1ebf – x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i. V\u1edbi chi\u1ec1u d\u00e0i h\u01a1n 340 km, b\u1eaft ngu\u1ed3n t\u1eeb d\u00e3y Sierra Maestra v\u00e0 ch\u1ea3y qua b\u1ed1n t\u1ec9nh tr\u1ecdng \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p l\u00e0 Granma, Holguin, Santiago de Cuba v\u00e0 Las Tunas, l\u01b0u v\u1ef1c n\u00e0y cung c\u1ea5p n\u01b0\u1edbc t\u01b0\u1edbi v\u00e0 sinh ho\u1ea1t cho kho\u1ea3ng 10% d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 c\u1ea3 n\u01b0\u1edbc. Tuy nhi\u00ean, trong nh\u1eefng th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, khu v\u1ef1c n\u00e0y li\u00ean t\u1ee5c tr\u1ea3i qua c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t h\u1ea1n h\u00e1n nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t trong m\u00f9a kh\u00f4 t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 11 \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e1ng 4 h\u00e0ng n\u0103m. D\u00f9 c\u00f3 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u01b0a trung b\u00ecnh l\u00ean t\u1edbi 1.200 mm m\u1ed7i n\u0103m, h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng l\u01b0u tr\u1eef v\u00e0 ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i n\u01b0\u1edbc xu\u1ed1ng c\u1ea5p khi\u1ebfn v\u00f9ng n\u00e0y th\u01b0\u1eddng xuy\u00ean l\u00e2m v\u00e0o t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng thi\u1ebfu n\u01b0\u1edbc tr\u1ea7m tr\u1ecdng. \u1ea2nh: Vi\u1ec7n Khoa h\u1ecdc t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean n\u01b0\u1edbc, B\u1ed9 N\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p v\u00e0 M\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng Trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh d\u1eef li\u1ec7u \u0111o \u0111\u1ea1c kh\u00ed t\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u1ea1i Cuba c\u00f2n r\u1ea5t h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf, nh\u00f3m nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u do TS.Tr\u1ea7n Anh Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u00e0 ThS.Tr\u1ea7n B\u1ea3o Chung – Vi\u1ec7n Khoa h\u1ecdc t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean n\u01b0\u1edbc, B\u1ed9 T\u00e0i nguy\u00ean v\u00e0 M\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng (nay l\u00e0 B\u1ed9 N\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p v\u00e0 M\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng) \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n \u201cNghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u hi\u1ec7n tr\u1ea1ng ngu\u1ed3n n\u01b0\u1edbc m\u1eb7t v\u00e0 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o x\u00e2m nh\u1eadp m\u1eb7n t\u1ea1i l\u01b0u v\u1ef1c s\u00f4ng Cauto l\u00e0m c\u01a1 s\u1edf \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t c\u00e1c gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t l\u00faa g\u1ea1o v\u00e0 c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n c\u1ea5p n\u01b0\u1edbc cho ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n\u201d, m\u00e3 s\u1ed1 N\u0110T.100.CU\/21, nhi\u1ec7m v\u1ee5 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tri\u1ec3n khai trong khu\u00f4n kh\u1ed5 Ngh\u1ecb \u0111\u1ecbnh th\u01b0 h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c v\u1edbi Cuba, kinh ph\u00ed nhi\u1ec7m v\u1ee5 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00e0i tr\u1ee3 th\u00f4ng qua V\u0103n ph\u00f2ng c\u00e1c Ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh khoa h\u1ecdc v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 qu\u1ed1c gia, B\u1ed9 Khoa h\u1ecdc v\u00e0 C\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 (nay l\u00e0 Qu\u1ef9 Ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n khoa h\u1ecdc v\u00e0 v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 Qu\u1ed1c gia, B\u1ed9 Khoa h\u1ecdc v\u00e0 C\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7). Nhi\u1ec7m v\u1ee5 \u1ee9ng d\u1ee5ng ngu\u1ed3n d\u1eef li\u1ec7u m\u01b0a v\u1ec7 tinh CHIRPS v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ph\u00e2n gi\u1ea3i cao, k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh b\u1eb1ng s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u t\u1eeb c\u00e1c tr\u1ea1m \u0111o t\u1ea1i ch\u1ed7, \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m h\u1ea1n h\u00e1n trong kh\u00f4ng gian v\u00e0 th\u1eddi gian tr\u00ean to\u00e0n l\u01b0u v\u1ef1c. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch t\u00ednh to\u00e1n ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 h\u1ea1n h\u00e1n SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) \u1edf ba th\u00e1ng th\u1eddi gian 3, 6 v\u00e0 9 th\u00e1ng trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 1981\u20132023, nh\u00f3m nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u \u0111\u00e3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u00f5 chu k\u1ef3, c\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed9 v\u00e0 ph\u1ea1m vi \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t h\u1ea1n. K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 cho th\u1ea5y t\u1ea7n su\u1ea5t h\u1ea1n h\u00e1n trung b\u00ecnh trong to\u00e0n v\u00f9ng dao \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1eeb 15 \u0111\u1ebfn 17% t\u1ed5ng th\u1eddi gian, trong \u0111\u00f3 c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t h\u1ea1n nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t x\u1ea3y ra v\u00e0o c\u00e1c n\u0103m 1988, 1992, 1998 v\u00e0 \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 n\u0103m 2004\u20132005 v\u1edbi ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 SPI xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi \u22122, ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n kh\u00f4 h\u1ea1n c\u1ef1c \u0111oan. \u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00e1ng l\u01b0u \u00fd l\u00e0 h\u1ea1n h\u00e1n kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 di\u1ec5n ra th\u01b0\u1eddng xuy\u00ean m\u00e0 c\u00f2n c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gia t\u0103ng m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng v\u00e0o m\u00f9a kh\u00f4. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea b\u1eb1ng ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p Mann\u2013Kendall cho th\u1ea5y c\u00f3 d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u gi\u1ea3m d\u1ea7n c\u1ee7a ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 SPI trong c\u00e1c th\u00e1ng m\u00f9a kh\u00f4, trong khi c\u00e1c th\u00e1ng m\u00f9a m\u01b0a c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng \u1ea9m h\u01a1n \u2013 m\u1ed9t minh ch\u1ee9ng r\u00f5 r\u1ec7t cho s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i c\u1ee7a ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 m\u01b0a d\u01b0\u1edbi t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i kh\u00ed h\u1eadu to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. Kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 d\u1eebng l\u1ea1i \u1edf nh\u1eadn di\u1ec7n c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t h\u1ea1n, nh\u00f3m nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u c\u00f2n ph\u00e2n t\u00edch s\u00e2u s\u1eafc v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t theo \u0111\u1ecba h\u00ecnh, trong \u0111\u00f3 c\u00e1c khu v\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ed3ng b\u1eb1ng \u1edf h\u1ea1 l\u01b0u ch\u1ecbu h\u1ea1n k\u00e9o d\u00e0i v\u00e0 c\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed9 cao h\u01a1n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi v\u00f9ng \u0111\u1ed3i n\u00fai ph\u00eda th\u01b0\u1ee3ng ngu\u1ed3n. \u0110\u1ec3 c\u00f3 c\u00e1i nh\u00ecn to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n h\u01a1n v\u1ec1 hi\u1ec7n tr\u1ea1ng t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean n\u01b0\u1edbc, nh\u00f3m t\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh t\u00edch h\u1ee3p gi\u1eefa SWAT (m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng th\u1ee7y v\u0103n) v\u00e0 WEAP (ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 ngu\u1ed3n n\u01b0\u1edbc) nh\u1eb1m \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7 chu tr\u00ecnh cung \u2013 c\u1ea7u \u2013 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng n\u01b0\u1edbc tr\u00ean to\u00e0n l\u01b0u v\u1ef1c, c\u1ea3 trong hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i v\u00e0 theo k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103m 2050. C\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng cho th\u1ea5y t\u1ed5ng nhu c\u1ea7u s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng n\u01b0\u1edbc hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a l\u01b0u v\u1ef1c s\u00f4ng Cauto kho\u1ea3ng 1.194 tri\u1ec7u m\u00e9t kh\u1ed1i m\u1ed7i n\u0103m, trong \u0111\u00f3 96% d\u00e0nh cho n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p \u2013 ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu l\u00e0 c\u00e2y l\u00faa v\u00e0 c\u00e2y tr\u1ed3ng c\u1ea1n. Nhu c\u1ea7u n\u01b0\u1edbc cho sinh ho\u1ea1t v\u00e0 ch\u0103n nu\u00f4i ch\u1ec9 chi\u1ebfm l\u1ea7n l\u01b0\u1ee3t 3% v\u00e0 1%. Tuy nhi\u00ean, \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u1eefa th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 21, t\u1ed5ng nhu c\u1ea7u n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o t\u0103ng l\u00ean 1.394 tri\u1ec7u m\u00e9t kh\u1ed1i m\u1ed7i n\u0103m (t\u0103ng 16,6%), do di\u1ec7n t\u00edch canh t\u00e1c m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng theo \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01b0\u1edbng ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n kinh t\u1ebf n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p, trong khi d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u1ea3m nh\u1eb9. \u1ede chi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, ngu\u1ed3n cung n\u01b0\u1edbc kh\u00f4ng nh\u1eefng kh\u00f4ng t\u0103ng m\u00e0 c\u00f2n gi\u1ea3m nh\u1eb9 (kho\u1ea3ng 2,5%) do hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng b\u1ed1c h\u01a1i m\u1ea1nh h\u01a1n, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t trong m\u00f9a m\u01b0a \u2013 h\u1ec7 qu\u1ea3 t\u1ea5t y\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a xu th\u1ebf nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng. K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 l\u00e0 t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng m\u1ea5t c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng n\u01b0\u1edbc ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng, v\u1edbi t\u1ed5ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t t\u0103ng t\u1eeb 172 tri\u1ec7u m\u00e9t kh\u1ed1i trong hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i l\u00ean t\u1edbi 262 tri\u1ec7u m\u00e9t kh\u1ed1i v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2050, t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng h\u01a1n 52%. C\u00e1c v\u00f9ng c\u00f3 nguy c\u01a1 thi\u1ebfu n\u01b0\u1edbc cao nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 ti\u1ec3u l\u01b0u v\u1ef1c SB3 v\u00e0 SB12 thu\u1ed9c v\u00f9ng Bayamo \u2013 n\u01a1i t\u1eadp trung s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t l\u00faa g\u1ea1o v\u1edbi nhu c\u1ea7u n\u01b0\u1edbc r\u1ea5t l\u1edbn. Tr\u00ean c\u01a1 s\u1edf c\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 n\u00e0y, nh\u00f3m nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t lo\u1ea1t gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p c\u00f3 t\u00ednh \u1ee9ng d\u1ee5ng cao cho qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean n\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0 th\u00edch \u1ee9ng v\u1edbi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i kh\u00ed h\u1eadu t\u1ea1i Cuba. Tr\u01b0\u1edbc h\u1ebft, c\u1ea7n ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng vi\u1ec7c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh t\u00edch h\u1ee3p nh\u01b0 SWAT\u2013WEAP k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p d\u1eef li\u1ec7u v\u1ec7 tinh CHIRPS, IMERG, ERA5… \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh (DSS) cho c\u00e1c c\u01a1 quan qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd. H\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng n\u00e0y c\u00f3<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":14677,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_eb_attr":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[45],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15035","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ket-qua-tai-tro-noi-bat"],"magazineBlocksPostFeaturedMedia":{"thumbnail":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/HTQT1-278x190.jpg","medium":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/HTQT1-556x303.jpg","medium_large":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/HTQT1-768x419.jpg","large":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/HTQT1.jpg","1536x1536":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/HTQT1.jpg","2048x2048":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/HTQT1.jpg","cvmm-medium":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/HTQT1-300x300.jpg","cvmm-medium-plus":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/HTQT1-305x207.jpg","cvmm-portrait":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/HTQT1-400x466.jpg","cvmm-medium-square":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/HTQT1-600x466.jpg","cvmm-large":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/HTQT1.jpg","cvmm-small":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/HTQT1-130x95.jpg","400x250-crop":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/HTQT1-400x250.jpg","htmagazine_grid":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/HTQT1-640x218.jpg"},"magazineBlocksPostAuthor":{"name":"admin","avatar":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/01be2b7eaa21fe4e25b709d19349c0fb?s=96&d=mm&r=g"},"magazineBlocksPostCommentsNumber":"0","magazineBlocksPostExcerpt":"L\u01b0u v\u1ef1c s\u00f4ng Cauto \u2013 d\u00f2ng s\u00f4ng d\u00e0i nh\u1ea5t v\u00e0 c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a r\u1ea5t l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi an ninh l\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ef1c qu\u1ed1c gia c\u1ee7a Cuba \u2013 \u0111ang \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c ch\u01b0a t\u1eebng c\u00f3 do t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng k\u00e9p c\u1ee7a bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i kh\u00ed h\u1eadu v\u00e0 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n kinh t\u1ebf – x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i. V\u1edbi chi\u1ec1u d\u00e0i h\u01a1n 340 km, b\u1eaft ngu\u1ed3n t\u1eeb d\u00e3y Sierra Maestra v\u00e0 ch\u1ea3y qua b\u1ed1n t\u1ec9nh tr\u1ecdng \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p l\u00e0 Granma, Holguin, Santiago de Cuba v\u00e0 Las Tunas, l\u01b0u v\u1ef1c n\u00e0y cung c\u1ea5p n\u01b0\u1edbc t\u01b0\u1edbi v\u00e0 sinh ho\u1ea1t cho kho\u1ea3ng 10% d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 c\u1ea3 n\u01b0\u1edbc. Tuy nhi\u00ean, trong nh\u1eefng th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, khu v\u1ef1c n\u00e0y li\u00ean t\u1ee5c tr\u1ea3i qua c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t h\u1ea1n h\u00e1n nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t trong m\u00f9a kh\u00f4 t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 11 \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e1ng 4 h\u00e0ng n\u0103m. D\u00f9 c\u00f3 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u01b0a trung b\u00ecnh l\u00ean t\u1edbi 1.200 mm m\u1ed7i n\u0103m, h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng l\u01b0u tr\u1eef v\u00e0 ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i n\u01b0\u1edbc xu\u1ed1ng c\u1ea5p khi\u1ebfn v\u00f9ng n\u00e0y th\u01b0\u1eddng xuy\u00ean l\u00e2m v\u00e0o t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng thi\u1ebfu n\u01b0\u1edbc tr\u1ea7m tr\u1ecdng. \u1ea2nh: Vi\u1ec7n Khoa h\u1ecdc t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean n\u01b0\u1edbc, B\u1ed9 N\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p v\u00e0 M\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng Trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh d\u1eef li\u1ec7u \u0111o \u0111\u1ea1c kh\u00ed t\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u1ea1i Cuba c\u00f2n r\u1ea5t h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf, nh\u00f3m nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u do TS.Tr\u1ea7n Anh Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u00e0 ThS.Tr\u1ea7n B\u1ea3o Chung – Vi\u1ec7n Khoa h\u1ecdc t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean n\u01b0\u1edbc, B\u1ed9 T\u00e0i nguy\u00ean v\u00e0 M\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng (nay l\u00e0 B\u1ed9 N\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p v\u00e0 M\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng) \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n \u201cNghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u hi\u1ec7n tr\u1ea1ng ngu\u1ed3n n\u01b0\u1edbc m\u1eb7t v\u00e0 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o x\u00e2m nh\u1eadp m\u1eb7n t\u1ea1i l\u01b0u v\u1ef1c s\u00f4ng Cauto l\u00e0m c\u01a1 s\u1edf \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t c\u00e1c gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t l\u00faa g\u1ea1o v\u00e0 c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n c\u1ea5p n\u01b0\u1edbc cho ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n\u201d, m\u00e3 s\u1ed1 N\u0110T.100.CU\/21, nhi\u1ec7m v\u1ee5 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tri\u1ec3n khai trong khu\u00f4n kh\u1ed5 Ngh\u1ecb \u0111\u1ecbnh th\u01b0 h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c v\u1edbi Cuba, kinh ph\u00ed nhi\u1ec7m v\u1ee5 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00e0i tr\u1ee3 th\u00f4ng qua V\u0103n ph\u00f2ng c\u00e1c Ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh khoa h\u1ecdc v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 qu\u1ed1c gia, B\u1ed9 Khoa h\u1ecdc v\u00e0 C\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 (nay l\u00e0 Qu\u1ef9 Ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n khoa h\u1ecdc v\u00e0 v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 Qu\u1ed1c gia, B\u1ed9 Khoa h\u1ecdc v\u00e0 C\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7). Nhi\u1ec7m v\u1ee5 \u1ee9ng d\u1ee5ng ngu\u1ed3n d\u1eef li\u1ec7u m\u01b0a v\u1ec7 tinh CHIRPS v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ph\u00e2n gi\u1ea3i cao, k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh b\u1eb1ng s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u t\u1eeb c\u00e1c tr\u1ea1m \u0111o t\u1ea1i ch\u1ed7, \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m h\u1ea1n h\u00e1n trong kh\u00f4ng gian v\u00e0 th\u1eddi gian tr\u00ean to\u00e0n l\u01b0u v\u1ef1c. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch t\u00ednh to\u00e1n ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 h\u1ea1n h\u00e1n SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) \u1edf ba th\u00e1ng th\u1eddi gian 3, 6 v\u00e0 9 th\u00e1ng trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 1981\u20132023, nh\u00f3m nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u \u0111\u00e3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u00f5 chu k\u1ef3, c\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed9 v\u00e0 ph\u1ea1m vi \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t h\u1ea1n. K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 cho th\u1ea5y t\u1ea7n su\u1ea5t h\u1ea1n h\u00e1n trung b\u00ecnh trong to\u00e0n v\u00f9ng dao \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1eeb 15 \u0111\u1ebfn 17% t\u1ed5ng th\u1eddi gian, trong \u0111\u00f3 c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t h\u1ea1n nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t x\u1ea3y ra v\u00e0o c\u00e1c n\u0103m 1988, 1992, 1998 v\u00e0 \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 n\u0103m 2004\u20132005 v\u1edbi ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 SPI xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi \u22122, ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n kh\u00f4 h\u1ea1n c\u1ef1c \u0111oan. \u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00e1ng l\u01b0u \u00fd l\u00e0 h\u1ea1n h\u00e1n kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 di\u1ec5n ra th\u01b0\u1eddng xuy\u00ean m\u00e0 c\u00f2n c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gia t\u0103ng m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng v\u00e0o m\u00f9a kh\u00f4. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea b\u1eb1ng ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p Mann\u2013Kendall cho th\u1ea5y c\u00f3 d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u gi\u1ea3m d\u1ea7n c\u1ee7a ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 SPI trong c\u00e1c th\u00e1ng m\u00f9a kh\u00f4, trong khi c\u00e1c th\u00e1ng m\u00f9a m\u01b0a c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng \u1ea9m h\u01a1n \u2013 m\u1ed9t minh ch\u1ee9ng r\u00f5 r\u1ec7t cho s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i c\u1ee7a ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 m\u01b0a d\u01b0\u1edbi t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i kh\u00ed h\u1eadu to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. Kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 d\u1eebng l\u1ea1i \u1edf nh\u1eadn di\u1ec7n c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t h\u1ea1n, nh\u00f3m nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u c\u00f2n ph\u00e2n t\u00edch s\u00e2u s\u1eafc v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t theo \u0111\u1ecba h\u00ecnh, trong \u0111\u00f3 c\u00e1c khu v\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ed3ng b\u1eb1ng \u1edf h\u1ea1 l\u01b0u ch\u1ecbu h\u1ea1n k\u00e9o d\u00e0i v\u00e0 c\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed9 cao h\u01a1n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi v\u00f9ng \u0111\u1ed3i n\u00fai ph\u00eda th\u01b0\u1ee3ng ngu\u1ed3n. \u0110\u1ec3 c\u00f3 c\u00e1i nh\u00ecn to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n h\u01a1n v\u1ec1 hi\u1ec7n tr\u1ea1ng t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean n\u01b0\u1edbc, nh\u00f3m t\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh t\u00edch h\u1ee3p gi\u1eefa SWAT (m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng th\u1ee7y v\u0103n) v\u00e0 WEAP (ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 ngu\u1ed3n n\u01b0\u1edbc) nh\u1eb1m \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7 chu tr\u00ecnh cung \u2013 c\u1ea7u \u2013 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng n\u01b0\u1edbc tr\u00ean to\u00e0n l\u01b0u v\u1ef1c, c\u1ea3 trong hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i v\u00e0 theo k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103m 2050. C\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng cho th\u1ea5y t\u1ed5ng nhu c\u1ea7u s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng n\u01b0\u1edbc hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a l\u01b0u v\u1ef1c s\u00f4ng Cauto kho\u1ea3ng 1.194 tri\u1ec7u m\u00e9t kh\u1ed1i m\u1ed7i n\u0103m, trong \u0111\u00f3 96% d\u00e0nh cho n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p \u2013 ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu l\u00e0 c\u00e2y l\u00faa v\u00e0 c\u00e2y tr\u1ed3ng c\u1ea1n. Nhu c\u1ea7u n\u01b0\u1edbc cho sinh ho\u1ea1t v\u00e0 ch\u0103n nu\u00f4i ch\u1ec9 chi\u1ebfm l\u1ea7n l\u01b0\u1ee3t 3% v\u00e0 1%. Tuy nhi\u00ean, \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u1eefa th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 21, t\u1ed5ng nhu c\u1ea7u n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o t\u0103ng l\u00ean 1.394 tri\u1ec7u m\u00e9t kh\u1ed1i m\u1ed7i n\u0103m (t\u0103ng 16,6%), do di\u1ec7n t\u00edch canh t\u00e1c m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng theo \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01b0\u1edbng ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n kinh t\u1ebf n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p, trong khi d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u1ea3m nh\u1eb9. \u1ede chi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, ngu\u1ed3n cung n\u01b0\u1edbc kh\u00f4ng nh\u1eefng kh\u00f4ng t\u0103ng m\u00e0 c\u00f2n gi\u1ea3m nh\u1eb9 (kho\u1ea3ng 2,5%) do hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng b\u1ed1c h\u01a1i m\u1ea1nh h\u01a1n, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t trong m\u00f9a m\u01b0a \u2013 h\u1ec7 qu\u1ea3 t\u1ea5t y\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a xu th\u1ebf nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng. K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 l\u00e0 t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng m\u1ea5t c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng n\u01b0\u1edbc ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng, v\u1edbi t\u1ed5ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t t\u0103ng t\u1eeb 172 tri\u1ec7u m\u00e9t kh\u1ed1i trong hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i l\u00ean t\u1edbi 262 tri\u1ec7u m\u00e9t kh\u1ed1i v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2050, t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng h\u01a1n 52%. C\u00e1c v\u00f9ng c\u00f3 nguy c\u01a1 thi\u1ebfu n\u01b0\u1edbc cao nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 ti\u1ec3u l\u01b0u v\u1ef1c SB3 v\u00e0 SB12 thu\u1ed9c v\u00f9ng Bayamo \u2013 n\u01a1i t\u1eadp trung s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t l\u00faa g\u1ea1o v\u1edbi nhu c\u1ea7u n\u01b0\u1edbc r\u1ea5t l\u1edbn. Tr\u00ean c\u01a1 s\u1edf c\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 n\u00e0y, nh\u00f3m nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t lo\u1ea1t gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p c\u00f3 t\u00ednh \u1ee9ng d\u1ee5ng cao cho qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean n\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0 th\u00edch \u1ee9ng v\u1edbi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i kh\u00ed h\u1eadu t\u1ea1i Cuba. Tr\u01b0\u1edbc h\u1ebft, c\u1ea7n ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng vi\u1ec7c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh t\u00edch h\u1ee3p nh\u01b0 SWAT\u2013WEAP k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p d\u1eef li\u1ec7u v\u1ec7 tinh CHIRPS, IMERG, ERA5… \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh (DSS) cho c\u00e1c c\u01a1 quan qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd. H\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng n\u00e0y c\u00f3","magazineBlocksPostCategories":["K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 t\u00e0i tr\u1ee3 n\u1ed5i b\u1eadt"],"magazineBlocksPostViewCount":2433,"magazineBlocksPostReadTime":12,"magazine_blocks_featured_image_url":{"full":["https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/HTQT1.jpg",854,466,false],"medium":["https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/HTQT1-556x303.jpg",556,303,true],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/HTQT1-278x190.jpg",278,190,true]},"magazine_blocks_author":{"display_name":"admin","author_link":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/author\/admin\/"},"magazine_blocks_comment":12,"magazine_blocks_author_image":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/01be2b7eaa21fe4e25b709d19349c0fb?s=96&d=mm&r=g","magazine_blocks_category":"K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 t\u00e0i tr\u1ee3 n\u1ed5i b\u1eadt<\/a>","yoast_head":"\r\n\u1ee8ng d\u1ee5ng kinh nghi\u1ec7m qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean n\u01b0\u1edbc \u1edf \u0110BSCL (Vi\u1ec7t Nam) v\u00e0o gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft b\u00e0i to\u00e1n x\u00e2m nh\u1eadp m\u1eb7n tr\u00ean LVS Cauto C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a Cuba - Qu\u1ef9 Ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n khoa h\u1ecdc v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 Qu\u1ed1c gia<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\r\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/ung-dung-kinh-nghiem-quan-ly-tai-nguyen-nuoc-o-dbscl-viet-nam-vao-giai-quyet-bai-toan-xam-nhap-man-tren-lvs-cauto-cong-hoa-cuba-2\/\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"vi_VN\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u1ee8ng d\u1ee5ng kinh nghi\u1ec7m qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean n\u01b0\u1edbc \u1edf \u0110BSCL (Vi\u1ec7t Nam) v\u00e0o gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft b\u00e0i to\u00e1n x\u00e2m nh\u1eadp m\u1eb7n tr\u00ean LVS Cauto C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a Cuba - Qu\u1ef9 Ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n khoa h\u1ecdc v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 Qu\u1ed1c gia\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"L\u01b0u v\u1ef1c s\u00f4ng Cauto \u2013 d\u00f2ng s\u00f4ng d\u00e0i nh\u1ea5t v\u00e0 c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a r\u1ea5t l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi an ninh l\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ef1c qu\u1ed1c gia c\u1ee7a Cuba \u2013 \u0111ang \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c ch\u01b0a t\u1eebng c\u00f3 do t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng k\u00e9p c\u1ee7a bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i kh\u00ed h\u1eadu v\u00e0 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n kinh t\u1ebf – x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i. V\u1edbi chi\u1ec1u d\u00e0i h\u01a1n 340 km, b\u1eaft ngu\u1ed3n t\u1eeb d\u00e3y Sierra Maestra v\u00e0 ch\u1ea3y qua b\u1ed1n t\u1ec9nh tr\u1ecdng \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p l\u00e0 Granma, Holguin, Santiago de Cuba v\u00e0 Las Tunas, l\u01b0u v\u1ef1c n\u00e0y cung c\u1ea5p n\u01b0\u1edbc t\u01b0\u1edbi v\u00e0 sinh ho\u1ea1t cho kho\u1ea3ng 10% d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 c\u1ea3 n\u01b0\u1edbc. Tuy nhi\u00ean, trong nh\u1eefng th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, khu v\u1ef1c n\u00e0y li\u00ean t\u1ee5c tr\u1ea3i qua c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t h\u1ea1n h\u00e1n nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t trong m\u00f9a kh\u00f4 t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 11 \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e1ng 4 h\u00e0ng n\u0103m. D\u00f9 c\u00f3 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u01b0a trung b\u00ecnh l\u00ean t\u1edbi 1.200 mm m\u1ed7i n\u0103m, h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng l\u01b0u tr\u1eef v\u00e0 ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i n\u01b0\u1edbc xu\u1ed1ng c\u1ea5p khi\u1ebfn v\u00f9ng n\u00e0y th\u01b0\u1eddng xuy\u00ean l\u00e2m v\u00e0o t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng thi\u1ebfu n\u01b0\u1edbc tr\u1ea7m tr\u1ecdng. \u1ea2nh: Vi\u1ec7n Khoa h\u1ecdc t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean n\u01b0\u1edbc, B\u1ed9 N\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p v\u00e0 M\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng Trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh d\u1eef li\u1ec7u \u0111o \u0111\u1ea1c kh\u00ed t\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u1ea1i Cuba c\u00f2n r\u1ea5t h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf, nh\u00f3m nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u do TS.Tr\u1ea7n Anh Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u00e0 ThS.Tr\u1ea7n B\u1ea3o Chung – Vi\u1ec7n Khoa h\u1ecdc t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean n\u01b0\u1edbc, B\u1ed9 T\u00e0i nguy\u00ean v\u00e0 M\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng (nay l\u00e0 B\u1ed9 N\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p v\u00e0 M\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng) \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n \u201cNghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u hi\u1ec7n tr\u1ea1ng ngu\u1ed3n n\u01b0\u1edbc m\u1eb7t v\u00e0 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o x\u00e2m nh\u1eadp m\u1eb7n t\u1ea1i l\u01b0u v\u1ef1c s\u00f4ng Cauto l\u00e0m c\u01a1 s\u1edf \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t c\u00e1c gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t l\u00faa g\u1ea1o v\u00e0 c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n c\u1ea5p n\u01b0\u1edbc cho ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n\u201d, m\u00e3 s\u1ed1 N\u0110T.100.CU\/21, nhi\u1ec7m v\u1ee5 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tri\u1ec3n khai trong khu\u00f4n kh\u1ed5 Ngh\u1ecb \u0111\u1ecbnh th\u01b0 h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c v\u1edbi Cuba, kinh ph\u00ed nhi\u1ec7m v\u1ee5 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00e0i tr\u1ee3 th\u00f4ng qua V\u0103n ph\u00f2ng c\u00e1c Ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh khoa h\u1ecdc v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 qu\u1ed1c gia, B\u1ed9 Khoa h\u1ecdc v\u00e0 C\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 (nay l\u00e0 Qu\u1ef9 Ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n khoa h\u1ecdc v\u00e0 v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 Qu\u1ed1c gia, B\u1ed9 Khoa h\u1ecdc v\u00e0 C\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7). Nhi\u1ec7m v\u1ee5 \u1ee9ng d\u1ee5ng ngu\u1ed3n d\u1eef li\u1ec7u m\u01b0a v\u1ec7 tinh CHIRPS v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ph\u00e2n gi\u1ea3i cao, k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh b\u1eb1ng s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u t\u1eeb c\u00e1c tr\u1ea1m \u0111o t\u1ea1i ch\u1ed7, \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m h\u1ea1n h\u00e1n trong kh\u00f4ng gian v\u00e0 th\u1eddi gian tr\u00ean to\u00e0n l\u01b0u v\u1ef1c. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch t\u00ednh to\u00e1n ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 h\u1ea1n h\u00e1n SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) \u1edf ba th\u00e1ng th\u1eddi gian 3, 6 v\u00e0 9 th\u00e1ng trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 1981\u20132023, nh\u00f3m nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u \u0111\u00e3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u00f5 chu k\u1ef3, c\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed9 v\u00e0 ph\u1ea1m vi \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t h\u1ea1n. K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 cho th\u1ea5y t\u1ea7n su\u1ea5t h\u1ea1n h\u00e1n trung b\u00ecnh trong to\u00e0n v\u00f9ng dao \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1eeb 15 \u0111\u1ebfn 17% t\u1ed5ng th\u1eddi gian, trong \u0111\u00f3 c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t h\u1ea1n nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t x\u1ea3y ra v\u00e0o c\u00e1c n\u0103m 1988, 1992, 1998 v\u00e0 \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 n\u0103m 2004\u20132005 v\u1edbi ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 SPI xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi \u22122, ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n kh\u00f4 h\u1ea1n c\u1ef1c \u0111oan. \u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00e1ng l\u01b0u \u00fd l\u00e0 h\u1ea1n h\u00e1n kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 di\u1ec5n ra th\u01b0\u1eddng xuy\u00ean m\u00e0 c\u00f2n c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gia t\u0103ng m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng v\u00e0o m\u00f9a kh\u00f4. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea b\u1eb1ng ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p Mann\u2013Kendall cho th\u1ea5y c\u00f3 d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u gi\u1ea3m d\u1ea7n c\u1ee7a ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 SPI trong c\u00e1c th\u00e1ng m\u00f9a kh\u00f4, trong khi c\u00e1c th\u00e1ng m\u00f9a m\u01b0a c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng \u1ea9m h\u01a1n \u2013 m\u1ed9t minh ch\u1ee9ng r\u00f5 r\u1ec7t cho s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i c\u1ee7a ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 m\u01b0a d\u01b0\u1edbi t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i kh\u00ed h\u1eadu to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. Kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 d\u1eebng l\u1ea1i \u1edf nh\u1eadn di\u1ec7n c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t h\u1ea1n, nh\u00f3m nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u c\u00f2n ph\u00e2n t\u00edch s\u00e2u s\u1eafc v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t theo \u0111\u1ecba h\u00ecnh, trong \u0111\u00f3 c\u00e1c khu v\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ed3ng b\u1eb1ng \u1edf h\u1ea1 l\u01b0u ch\u1ecbu h\u1ea1n k\u00e9o d\u00e0i v\u00e0 c\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed9 cao h\u01a1n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi v\u00f9ng \u0111\u1ed3i n\u00fai ph\u00eda th\u01b0\u1ee3ng ngu\u1ed3n. \u0110\u1ec3 c\u00f3 c\u00e1i nh\u00ecn to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n h\u01a1n v\u1ec1 hi\u1ec7n tr\u1ea1ng t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean n\u01b0\u1edbc, nh\u00f3m t\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh t\u00edch h\u1ee3p gi\u1eefa SWAT (m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng th\u1ee7y v\u0103n) v\u00e0 WEAP (ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 ngu\u1ed3n n\u01b0\u1edbc) nh\u1eb1m \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7 chu tr\u00ecnh cung \u2013 c\u1ea7u \u2013 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng n\u01b0\u1edbc tr\u00ean to\u00e0n l\u01b0u v\u1ef1c, c\u1ea3 trong hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i v\u00e0 theo k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103m 2050. C\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng cho th\u1ea5y t\u1ed5ng nhu c\u1ea7u s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng n\u01b0\u1edbc hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a l\u01b0u v\u1ef1c s\u00f4ng Cauto kho\u1ea3ng 1.194 tri\u1ec7u m\u00e9t kh\u1ed1i m\u1ed7i n\u0103m, trong \u0111\u00f3 96% d\u00e0nh cho n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p \u2013 ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu l\u00e0 c\u00e2y l\u00faa v\u00e0 c\u00e2y tr\u1ed3ng c\u1ea1n. Nhu c\u1ea7u n\u01b0\u1edbc cho sinh ho\u1ea1t v\u00e0 ch\u0103n nu\u00f4i ch\u1ec9 chi\u1ebfm l\u1ea7n l\u01b0\u1ee3t 3% v\u00e0 1%. Tuy nhi\u00ean, \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u1eefa th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 21, t\u1ed5ng nhu c\u1ea7u n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o t\u0103ng l\u00ean 1.394 tri\u1ec7u m\u00e9t kh\u1ed1i m\u1ed7i n\u0103m (t\u0103ng 16,6%), do di\u1ec7n t\u00edch canh t\u00e1c m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng theo \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01b0\u1edbng ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n kinh t\u1ebf n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p, trong khi d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u1ea3m nh\u1eb9. \u1ede chi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, ngu\u1ed3n cung n\u01b0\u1edbc kh\u00f4ng nh\u1eefng kh\u00f4ng t\u0103ng m\u00e0 c\u00f2n gi\u1ea3m nh\u1eb9 (kho\u1ea3ng 2,5%) do hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng b\u1ed1c h\u01a1i m\u1ea1nh h\u01a1n, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t trong m\u00f9a m\u01b0a \u2013 h\u1ec7 qu\u1ea3 t\u1ea5t y\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a xu th\u1ebf nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng. K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 l\u00e0 t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng m\u1ea5t c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng n\u01b0\u1edbc ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng, v\u1edbi t\u1ed5ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t t\u0103ng t\u1eeb 172 tri\u1ec7u m\u00e9t kh\u1ed1i trong hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i l\u00ean t\u1edbi 262 tri\u1ec7u m\u00e9t kh\u1ed1i v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2050, t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng h\u01a1n 52%. C\u00e1c v\u00f9ng c\u00f3 nguy c\u01a1 thi\u1ebfu n\u01b0\u1edbc cao nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 ti\u1ec3u l\u01b0u v\u1ef1c SB3 v\u00e0 SB12 thu\u1ed9c v\u00f9ng Bayamo \u2013 n\u01a1i t\u1eadp trung s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t l\u00faa g\u1ea1o v\u1edbi nhu c\u1ea7u n\u01b0\u1edbc r\u1ea5t l\u1edbn. Tr\u00ean c\u01a1 s\u1edf c\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 n\u00e0y, nh\u00f3m nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t lo\u1ea1t gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p c\u00f3 t\u00ednh \u1ee9ng d\u1ee5ng cao cho qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean n\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0 th\u00edch \u1ee9ng v\u1edbi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i kh\u00ed h\u1eadu t\u1ea1i Cuba. Tr\u01b0\u1edbc h\u1ebft, c\u1ea7n ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng vi\u1ec7c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh t\u00edch h\u1ee3p nh\u01b0 SWAT\u2013WEAP k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p d\u1eef li\u1ec7u v\u1ec7 tinh CHIRPS, IMERG, ERA5… \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh (DSS) cho c\u00e1c c\u01a1 quan qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd. H\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng n\u00e0y c\u00f3\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/ung-dung-kinh-nghiem-quan-ly-tai-nguyen-nuoc-o-dbscl-viet-nam-vao-giai-quyet-bai-toan-xam-nhap-man-tren-lvs-cauto-cong-hoa-cuba-2\/\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Qu\u1ef9 Ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n khoa h\u1ecdc v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 Qu\u1ed1c gia\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-08-13T16:41:52+00:00\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/HTQT1.jpg\" \/>\r\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"854\" \/>\r\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"466\" \/>\r\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"admin\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u0110\u01b0\u1ee3c vi\u1ebft b\u1edfi\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"\u01af\u1edbc t\u00ednh th\u1eddi gian \u0111\u1ecdc\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"8 ph\u00fat\" \/>\r\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/ung-dung-kinh-nghiem-quan-ly-tai-nguyen-nuoc-o-dbscl-viet-nam-vao-giai-quyet-bai-toan-xam-nhap-man-tren-lvs-cauto-cong-hoa-cuba-2\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/ung-dung-kinh-nghiem-quan-ly-tai-nguyen-nuoc-o-dbscl-viet-nam-vao-giai-quyet-bai-toan-xam-nhap-man-tren-lvs-cauto-cong-hoa-cuba-2\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/#\/schema\/person\/0f3609cce95c0e113635c69e9cf26dbb\"},\"headline\":\"\u1ee8ng d\u1ee5ng kinh nghi\u1ec7m qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean n\u01b0\u1edbc \u1edf \u0110BSCL (Vi\u1ec7t Nam) v\u00e0o gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft b\u00e0i to\u00e1n x\u00e2m nh\u1eadp m\u1eb7n tr\u00ean LVS Cauto C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a Cuba\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-08-13T16:41:52+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/ung-dung-kinh-nghiem-quan-ly-tai-nguyen-nuoc-o-dbscl-viet-nam-vao-giai-quyet-bai-toan-xam-nhap-man-tren-lvs-cauto-cong-hoa-cuba-2\/\"},\"wordCount\":2334,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/ung-dung-kinh-nghiem-quan-ly-tai-nguyen-nuoc-o-dbscl-viet-nam-vao-giai-quyet-bai-toan-xam-nhap-man-tren-lvs-cauto-cong-hoa-cuba-2\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/HTQT1.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 t\u00e0i tr\u1ee3 n\u1ed5i b\u1eadt\"],\"inLanguage\":\"vi\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/ung-dung-kinh-nghiem-quan-ly-tai-nguyen-nuoc-o-dbscl-viet-nam-vao-giai-quyet-bai-toan-xam-nhap-man-tren-lvs-cauto-cong-hoa-cuba-2\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/ung-dung-kinh-nghiem-quan-ly-tai-nguyen-nuoc-o-dbscl-viet-nam-vao-giai-quyet-bai-toan-xam-nhap-man-tren-lvs-cauto-cong-hoa-cuba-2\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/ung-dung-kinh-nghiem-quan-ly-tai-nguyen-nuoc-o-dbscl-viet-nam-vao-giai-quyet-bai-toan-xam-nhap-man-tren-lvs-cauto-cong-hoa-cuba-2\/\",\"name\":\"\u1ee8ng d\u1ee5ng kinh nghi\u1ec7m qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean n\u01b0\u1edbc \u1edf \u0110BSCL (Vi\u1ec7t Nam) v\u00e0o gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft b\u00e0i to\u00e1n x\u00e2m nh\u1eadp m\u1eb7n tr\u00ean LVS Cauto C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a Cuba - Qu\u1ef9 Ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n khoa h\u1ecdc v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 Qu\u1ed1c gia\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/ung-dung-kinh-nghiem-quan-ly-tai-nguyen-nuoc-o-dbscl-viet-nam-vao-giai-quyet-bai-toan-xam-nhap-man-tren-lvs-cauto-cong-hoa-cuba-2\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/ung-dung-kinh-nghiem-quan-ly-tai-nguyen-nuoc-o-dbscl-viet-nam-vao-giai-quyet-bai-toan-xam-nhap-man-tren-lvs-cauto-cong-hoa-cuba-2\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/HTQT1.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-08-13T16:41:52+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/ung-dung-kinh-nghiem-quan-ly-tai-nguyen-nuoc-o-dbscl-viet-nam-vao-giai-quyet-bai-toan-xam-nhap-man-tren-lvs-cauto-cong-hoa-cuba-2\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"vi\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/ung-dung-kinh-nghiem-quan-ly-tai-nguyen-nuoc-o-dbscl-viet-nam-vao-giai-quyet-bai-toan-xam-nhap-man-tren-lvs-cauto-cong-hoa-cuba-2\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"vi\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/ung-dung-kinh-nghiem-quan-ly-tai-nguyen-nuoc-o-dbscl-viet-nam-vao-giai-quyet-bai-toan-xam-nhap-man-tren-lvs-cauto-cong-hoa-cuba-2\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/HTQT1.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/HTQT1.jpg\",\"width\":854,\"height\":466,\"caption\":\"L\u01b0u v\u1ef1c s\u00f4ng Cauto (C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a Cuba) \u1ea2nh: Vi\u1ec7n Khoa h\u1ecdc t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean n\u01b0\u1edbc, B\u1ed9 N\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p v\u00e0 M\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/ung-dung-kinh-nghiem-quan-ly-tai-nguyen-nuoc-o-dbscl-viet-nam-vao-giai-quyet-bai-toan-xam-nhap-man-tren-lvs-cauto-cong-hoa-cuba-2\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Trang ch\u1ee7\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"\u1ee8ng d\u1ee5ng kinh nghi\u1ec7m qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean n\u01b0\u1edbc \u1edf \u0110BSCL (Vi\u1ec7t Nam) v\u00e0o gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft b\u00e0i to\u00e1n x\u00e2m nh\u1eadp m\u1eb7n tr\u00ean LVS Cauto C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a Cuba\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/\",\"name\":\"Qu\u1ef9 Ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n khoa h\u1ecdc v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 Qu\u1ed1c gia\",\"description\":\"\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"vi\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Qu\u1ef9 Ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n khoa h\u1ecdc v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 Qu\u1ed1c gia\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"vi\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/cropped-NAFOSTED-VIE-01.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/cropped-NAFOSTED-VIE-01.png\",\"width\":6250,\"height\":1875,\"caption\":\"Qu\u1ef9 Ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n khoa h\u1ecdc v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 Qu\u1ed1c gia\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"}},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/#\/schema\/person\/0f3609cce95c0e113635c69e9cf26dbb\",\"name\":\"admin\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"vi\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/01be2b7eaa21fe4e25b709d19349c0fb?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/01be2b7eaa21fe4e25b709d19349c0fb?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"admin\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\"],\"url\":\"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/author\/admin\/\"}]}<\/script>\r\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"\u1ee8ng d\u1ee5ng kinh nghi\u1ec7m qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean n\u01b0\u1edbc \u1edf \u0110BSCL (Vi\u1ec7t Nam) v\u00e0o gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft b\u00e0i to\u00e1n x\u00e2m nh\u1eadp m\u1eb7n tr\u00ean LVS Cauto C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a Cuba - Qu\u1ef9 Ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n khoa h\u1ecdc v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 Qu\u1ed1c gia","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/ung-dung-kinh-nghiem-quan-ly-tai-nguyen-nuoc-o-dbscl-viet-nam-vao-giai-quyet-bai-toan-xam-nhap-man-tren-lvs-cauto-cong-hoa-cuba-2\/","og_locale":"vi_VN","og_type":"article","og_title":"\u1ee8ng d\u1ee5ng kinh nghi\u1ec7m qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean n\u01b0\u1edbc \u1edf \u0110BSCL (Vi\u1ec7t Nam) v\u00e0o gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft b\u00e0i to\u00e1n x\u00e2m nh\u1eadp m\u1eb7n tr\u00ean LVS Cauto C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a Cuba - Qu\u1ef9 Ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n khoa h\u1ecdc v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 Qu\u1ed1c gia","og_description":"L\u01b0u v\u1ef1c s\u00f4ng Cauto \u2013 d\u00f2ng s\u00f4ng d\u00e0i nh\u1ea5t v\u00e0 c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a r\u1ea5t l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi an ninh l\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ef1c qu\u1ed1c gia c\u1ee7a Cuba \u2013 \u0111ang \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c ch\u01b0a t\u1eebng c\u00f3 do t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng k\u00e9p c\u1ee7a bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i kh\u00ed h\u1eadu v\u00e0 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n kinh t\u1ebf – x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i. V\u1edbi chi\u1ec1u d\u00e0i h\u01a1n 340 km, b\u1eaft ngu\u1ed3n t\u1eeb d\u00e3y Sierra Maestra v\u00e0 ch\u1ea3y qua b\u1ed1n t\u1ec9nh tr\u1ecdng \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p l\u00e0 Granma, Holguin, Santiago de Cuba v\u00e0 Las Tunas, l\u01b0u v\u1ef1c n\u00e0y cung c\u1ea5p n\u01b0\u1edbc t\u01b0\u1edbi v\u00e0 sinh ho\u1ea1t cho kho\u1ea3ng 10% d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 c\u1ea3 n\u01b0\u1edbc. Tuy nhi\u00ean, trong nh\u1eefng th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, khu v\u1ef1c n\u00e0y li\u00ean t\u1ee5c tr\u1ea3i qua c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t h\u1ea1n h\u00e1n nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t trong m\u00f9a kh\u00f4 t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 11 \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e1ng 4 h\u00e0ng n\u0103m. D\u00f9 c\u00f3 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u01b0a trung b\u00ecnh l\u00ean t\u1edbi 1.200 mm m\u1ed7i n\u0103m, h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng l\u01b0u tr\u1eef v\u00e0 ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i n\u01b0\u1edbc xu\u1ed1ng c\u1ea5p khi\u1ebfn v\u00f9ng n\u00e0y th\u01b0\u1eddng xuy\u00ean l\u00e2m v\u00e0o t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng thi\u1ebfu n\u01b0\u1edbc tr\u1ea7m tr\u1ecdng. \u1ea2nh: Vi\u1ec7n Khoa h\u1ecdc t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean n\u01b0\u1edbc, B\u1ed9 N\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p v\u00e0 M\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng Trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh d\u1eef li\u1ec7u \u0111o \u0111\u1ea1c kh\u00ed t\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u1ea1i Cuba c\u00f2n r\u1ea5t h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf, nh\u00f3m nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u do TS.Tr\u1ea7n Anh Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u00e0 ThS.Tr\u1ea7n B\u1ea3o Chung – Vi\u1ec7n Khoa h\u1ecdc t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean n\u01b0\u1edbc, B\u1ed9 T\u00e0i nguy\u00ean v\u00e0 M\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng (nay l\u00e0 B\u1ed9 N\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p v\u00e0 M\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng) \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n \u201cNghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u hi\u1ec7n tr\u1ea1ng ngu\u1ed3n n\u01b0\u1edbc m\u1eb7t v\u00e0 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o x\u00e2m nh\u1eadp m\u1eb7n t\u1ea1i l\u01b0u v\u1ef1c s\u00f4ng Cauto l\u00e0m c\u01a1 s\u1edf \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t c\u00e1c gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t l\u00faa g\u1ea1o v\u00e0 c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n c\u1ea5p n\u01b0\u1edbc cho ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n\u201d, m\u00e3 s\u1ed1 N\u0110T.100.CU\/21, nhi\u1ec7m v\u1ee5 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tri\u1ec3n khai trong khu\u00f4n kh\u1ed5 Ngh\u1ecb \u0111\u1ecbnh th\u01b0 h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c v\u1edbi Cuba, kinh ph\u00ed nhi\u1ec7m v\u1ee5 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00e0i tr\u1ee3 th\u00f4ng qua V\u0103n ph\u00f2ng c\u00e1c Ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh khoa h\u1ecdc v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 qu\u1ed1c gia, B\u1ed9 Khoa h\u1ecdc v\u00e0 C\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 (nay l\u00e0 Qu\u1ef9 Ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n khoa h\u1ecdc v\u00e0 v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 Qu\u1ed1c gia, B\u1ed9 Khoa h\u1ecdc v\u00e0 C\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7). Nhi\u1ec7m v\u1ee5 \u1ee9ng d\u1ee5ng ngu\u1ed3n d\u1eef li\u1ec7u m\u01b0a v\u1ec7 tinh CHIRPS v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ph\u00e2n gi\u1ea3i cao, k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh b\u1eb1ng s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u t\u1eeb c\u00e1c tr\u1ea1m \u0111o t\u1ea1i ch\u1ed7, \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m h\u1ea1n h\u00e1n trong kh\u00f4ng gian v\u00e0 th\u1eddi gian tr\u00ean to\u00e0n l\u01b0u v\u1ef1c. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch t\u00ednh to\u00e1n ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 h\u1ea1n h\u00e1n SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) \u1edf ba th\u00e1ng th\u1eddi gian 3, 6 v\u00e0 9 th\u00e1ng trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 1981\u20132023, nh\u00f3m nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u \u0111\u00e3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u00f5 chu k\u1ef3, c\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed9 v\u00e0 ph\u1ea1m vi \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t h\u1ea1n. K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 cho th\u1ea5y t\u1ea7n su\u1ea5t h\u1ea1n h\u00e1n trung b\u00ecnh trong to\u00e0n v\u00f9ng dao \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1eeb 15 \u0111\u1ebfn 17% t\u1ed5ng th\u1eddi gian, trong \u0111\u00f3 c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t h\u1ea1n nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t x\u1ea3y ra v\u00e0o c\u00e1c n\u0103m 1988, 1992, 1998 v\u00e0 \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 n\u0103m 2004\u20132005 v\u1edbi ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 SPI xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi \u22122, ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n kh\u00f4 h\u1ea1n c\u1ef1c \u0111oan. \u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00e1ng l\u01b0u \u00fd l\u00e0 h\u1ea1n h\u00e1n kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 di\u1ec5n ra th\u01b0\u1eddng xuy\u00ean m\u00e0 c\u00f2n c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gia t\u0103ng m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng v\u00e0o m\u00f9a kh\u00f4. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea b\u1eb1ng ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p Mann\u2013Kendall cho th\u1ea5y c\u00f3 d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u gi\u1ea3m d\u1ea7n c\u1ee7a ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 SPI trong c\u00e1c th\u00e1ng m\u00f9a kh\u00f4, trong khi c\u00e1c th\u00e1ng m\u00f9a m\u01b0a c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng \u1ea9m h\u01a1n \u2013 m\u1ed9t minh ch\u1ee9ng r\u00f5 r\u1ec7t cho s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i c\u1ee7a ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 m\u01b0a d\u01b0\u1edbi t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i kh\u00ed h\u1eadu to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. Kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 d\u1eebng l\u1ea1i \u1edf nh\u1eadn di\u1ec7n c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t h\u1ea1n, nh\u00f3m nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u c\u00f2n ph\u00e2n t\u00edch s\u00e2u s\u1eafc v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t theo \u0111\u1ecba h\u00ecnh, trong \u0111\u00f3 c\u00e1c khu v\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ed3ng b\u1eb1ng \u1edf h\u1ea1 l\u01b0u ch\u1ecbu h\u1ea1n k\u00e9o d\u00e0i v\u00e0 c\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed9 cao h\u01a1n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi v\u00f9ng \u0111\u1ed3i n\u00fai ph\u00eda th\u01b0\u1ee3ng ngu\u1ed3n. \u0110\u1ec3 c\u00f3 c\u00e1i nh\u00ecn to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n h\u01a1n v\u1ec1 hi\u1ec7n tr\u1ea1ng t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean n\u01b0\u1edbc, nh\u00f3m t\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh t\u00edch h\u1ee3p gi\u1eefa SWAT (m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng th\u1ee7y v\u0103n) v\u00e0 WEAP (ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 ngu\u1ed3n n\u01b0\u1edbc) nh\u1eb1m \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7 chu tr\u00ecnh cung \u2013 c\u1ea7u \u2013 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng n\u01b0\u1edbc tr\u00ean to\u00e0n l\u01b0u v\u1ef1c, c\u1ea3 trong hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i v\u00e0 theo k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103m 2050. C\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng cho th\u1ea5y t\u1ed5ng nhu c\u1ea7u s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng n\u01b0\u1edbc hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a l\u01b0u v\u1ef1c s\u00f4ng Cauto kho\u1ea3ng 1.194 tri\u1ec7u m\u00e9t kh\u1ed1i m\u1ed7i n\u0103m, trong \u0111\u00f3 96% d\u00e0nh cho n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p \u2013 ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu l\u00e0 c\u00e2y l\u00faa v\u00e0 c\u00e2y tr\u1ed3ng c\u1ea1n. Nhu c\u1ea7u n\u01b0\u1edbc cho sinh ho\u1ea1t v\u00e0 ch\u0103n nu\u00f4i ch\u1ec9 chi\u1ebfm l\u1ea7n l\u01b0\u1ee3t 3% v\u00e0 1%. Tuy nhi\u00ean, \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u1eefa th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 21, t\u1ed5ng nhu c\u1ea7u n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o t\u0103ng l\u00ean 1.394 tri\u1ec7u m\u00e9t kh\u1ed1i m\u1ed7i n\u0103m (t\u0103ng 16,6%), do di\u1ec7n t\u00edch canh t\u00e1c m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng theo \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01b0\u1edbng ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n kinh t\u1ebf n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p, trong khi d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u1ea3m nh\u1eb9. \u1ede chi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, ngu\u1ed3n cung n\u01b0\u1edbc kh\u00f4ng nh\u1eefng kh\u00f4ng t\u0103ng m\u00e0 c\u00f2n gi\u1ea3m nh\u1eb9 (kho\u1ea3ng 2,5%) do hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng b\u1ed1c h\u01a1i m\u1ea1nh h\u01a1n, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t trong m\u00f9a m\u01b0a \u2013 h\u1ec7 qu\u1ea3 t\u1ea5t y\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a xu th\u1ebf nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng. K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 l\u00e0 t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng m\u1ea5t c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng n\u01b0\u1edbc ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng, v\u1edbi t\u1ed5ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t t\u0103ng t\u1eeb 172 tri\u1ec7u m\u00e9t kh\u1ed1i trong hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i l\u00ean t\u1edbi 262 tri\u1ec7u m\u00e9t kh\u1ed1i v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2050, t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng h\u01a1n 52%. C\u00e1c v\u00f9ng c\u00f3 nguy c\u01a1 thi\u1ebfu n\u01b0\u1edbc cao nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 ti\u1ec3u l\u01b0u v\u1ef1c SB3 v\u00e0 SB12 thu\u1ed9c v\u00f9ng Bayamo \u2013 n\u01a1i t\u1eadp trung s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t l\u00faa g\u1ea1o v\u1edbi nhu c\u1ea7u n\u01b0\u1edbc r\u1ea5t l\u1edbn. Tr\u00ean c\u01a1 s\u1edf c\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 n\u00e0y, nh\u00f3m nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t lo\u1ea1t gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p c\u00f3 t\u00ednh \u1ee9ng d\u1ee5ng cao cho qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean n\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0 th\u00edch \u1ee9ng v\u1edbi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i kh\u00ed h\u1eadu t\u1ea1i Cuba. Tr\u01b0\u1edbc h\u1ebft, c\u1ea7n ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng vi\u1ec7c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh t\u00edch h\u1ee3p nh\u01b0 SWAT\u2013WEAP k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p d\u1eef li\u1ec7u v\u1ec7 tinh CHIRPS, IMERG, ERA5… \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh (DSS) cho c\u00e1c c\u01a1 quan qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd. H\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng n\u00e0y c\u00f3","og_url":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/ung-dung-kinh-nghiem-quan-ly-tai-nguyen-nuoc-o-dbscl-viet-nam-vao-giai-quyet-bai-toan-xam-nhap-man-tren-lvs-cauto-cong-hoa-cuba-2\/","og_site_name":"Qu\u1ef9 Ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n khoa h\u1ecdc v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 Qu\u1ed1c gia","article_published_time":"2025-08-13T16:41:52+00:00","og_image":[{"width":854,"height":466,"url":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/HTQT1.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"admin","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"\u0110\u01b0\u1ee3c vi\u1ebft b\u1edfi":"admin","\u01af\u1edbc t\u00ednh th\u1eddi gian \u0111\u1ecdc":"8 ph\u00fat"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/ung-dung-kinh-nghiem-quan-ly-tai-nguyen-nuoc-o-dbscl-viet-nam-vao-giai-quyet-bai-toan-xam-nhap-man-tren-lvs-cauto-cong-hoa-cuba-2\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/ung-dung-kinh-nghiem-quan-ly-tai-nguyen-nuoc-o-dbscl-viet-nam-vao-giai-quyet-bai-toan-xam-nhap-man-tren-lvs-cauto-cong-hoa-cuba-2\/"},"author":{"name":"admin","@id":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/#\/schema\/person\/0f3609cce95c0e113635c69e9cf26dbb"},"headline":"\u1ee8ng d\u1ee5ng kinh nghi\u1ec7m qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean n\u01b0\u1edbc \u1edf \u0110BSCL (Vi\u1ec7t Nam) v\u00e0o gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft b\u00e0i to\u00e1n x\u00e2m nh\u1eadp m\u1eb7n tr\u00ean LVS Cauto C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a Cuba","datePublished":"2025-08-13T16:41:52+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/ung-dung-kinh-nghiem-quan-ly-tai-nguyen-nuoc-o-dbscl-viet-nam-vao-giai-quyet-bai-toan-xam-nhap-man-tren-lvs-cauto-cong-hoa-cuba-2\/"},"wordCount":2334,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/ung-dung-kinh-nghiem-quan-ly-tai-nguyen-nuoc-o-dbscl-viet-nam-vao-giai-quyet-bai-toan-xam-nhap-man-tren-lvs-cauto-cong-hoa-cuba-2\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/HTQT1.jpg","articleSection":["K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 t\u00e0i tr\u1ee3 n\u1ed5i b\u1eadt"],"inLanguage":"vi","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/ung-dung-kinh-nghiem-quan-ly-tai-nguyen-nuoc-o-dbscl-viet-nam-vao-giai-quyet-bai-toan-xam-nhap-man-tren-lvs-cauto-cong-hoa-cuba-2\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/ung-dung-kinh-nghiem-quan-ly-tai-nguyen-nuoc-o-dbscl-viet-nam-vao-giai-quyet-bai-toan-xam-nhap-man-tren-lvs-cauto-cong-hoa-cuba-2\/","url":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/ung-dung-kinh-nghiem-quan-ly-tai-nguyen-nuoc-o-dbscl-viet-nam-vao-giai-quyet-bai-toan-xam-nhap-man-tren-lvs-cauto-cong-hoa-cuba-2\/","name":"\u1ee8ng d\u1ee5ng kinh nghi\u1ec7m qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean n\u01b0\u1edbc \u1edf \u0110BSCL (Vi\u1ec7t Nam) v\u00e0o gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft b\u00e0i to\u00e1n x\u00e2m nh\u1eadp m\u1eb7n tr\u00ean LVS Cauto C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a Cuba - Qu\u1ef9 Ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n khoa h\u1ecdc v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 Qu\u1ed1c gia","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/ung-dung-kinh-nghiem-quan-ly-tai-nguyen-nuoc-o-dbscl-viet-nam-vao-giai-quyet-bai-toan-xam-nhap-man-tren-lvs-cauto-cong-hoa-cuba-2\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/ung-dung-kinh-nghiem-quan-ly-tai-nguyen-nuoc-o-dbscl-viet-nam-vao-giai-quyet-bai-toan-xam-nhap-man-tren-lvs-cauto-cong-hoa-cuba-2\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/HTQT1.jpg","datePublished":"2025-08-13T16:41:52+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/ung-dung-kinh-nghiem-quan-ly-tai-nguyen-nuoc-o-dbscl-viet-nam-vao-giai-quyet-bai-toan-xam-nhap-man-tren-lvs-cauto-cong-hoa-cuba-2\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"vi","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/ung-dung-kinh-nghiem-quan-ly-tai-nguyen-nuoc-o-dbscl-viet-nam-vao-giai-quyet-bai-toan-xam-nhap-man-tren-lvs-cauto-cong-hoa-cuba-2\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"vi","@id":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/ung-dung-kinh-nghiem-quan-ly-tai-nguyen-nuoc-o-dbscl-viet-nam-vao-giai-quyet-bai-toan-xam-nhap-man-tren-lvs-cauto-cong-hoa-cuba-2\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/HTQT1.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/HTQT1.jpg","width":854,"height":466,"caption":"L\u01b0u v\u1ef1c s\u00f4ng Cauto (C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a Cuba) \u1ea2nh: Vi\u1ec7n Khoa h\u1ecdc t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean n\u01b0\u1edbc, B\u1ed9 N\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p v\u00e0 M\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/ung-dung-kinh-nghiem-quan-ly-tai-nguyen-nuoc-o-dbscl-viet-nam-vao-giai-quyet-bai-toan-xam-nhap-man-tren-lvs-cauto-cong-hoa-cuba-2\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Trang ch\u1ee7","item":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"\u1ee8ng d\u1ee5ng kinh nghi\u1ec7m qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean n\u01b0\u1edbc \u1edf \u0110BSCL (Vi\u1ec7t Nam) v\u00e0o gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft b\u00e0i to\u00e1n x\u00e2m nh\u1eadp m\u1eb7n tr\u00ean LVS Cauto C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a Cuba"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/#website","url":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/","name":"Qu\u1ef9 Ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n khoa h\u1ecdc v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 Qu\u1ed1c gia","description":"","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"vi"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/#organization","name":"Qu\u1ef9 Ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n khoa h\u1ecdc v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 Qu\u1ed1c gia","url":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"vi","@id":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/cropped-NAFOSTED-VIE-01.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/cropped-NAFOSTED-VIE-01.png","width":6250,"height":1875,"caption":"Qu\u1ef9 Ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n khoa h\u1ecdc v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 Qu\u1ed1c gia"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"}},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/#\/schema\/person\/0f3609cce95c0e113635c69e9cf26dbb","name":"admin","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"vi","@id":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/01be2b7eaa21fe4e25b709d19349c0fb?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/01be2b7eaa21fe4e25b709d19349c0fb?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"admin"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn"],"url":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/author\/admin\/"}]}},"blog_post_layout_featured_media_urls":{"thumbnail":["https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/HTQT1-278x190.jpg",278,190,true],"full":["https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/HTQT1.jpg",854,466,false]},"categories_names":{"45":{"name":"K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 t\u00e0i tr\u1ee3 n\u1ed5i b\u1eadt","link":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/category\/ket-qua-tai-tro-noi-bat\/"}},"tags_names":[],"comments_number":"0","wpmagazine_modules_lite_featured_media_urls":{"thumbnail":["https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/HTQT1-278x190.jpg",278,190,true],"cvmm-medium":["https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/HTQT1-300x300.jpg",300,300,true],"cvmm-medium-plus":["https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/HTQT1-305x207.jpg",305,207,true],"cvmm-portrait":["https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/HTQT1-400x466.jpg",400,466,true],"cvmm-medium-square":["https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/HTQT1-600x466.jpg",600,466,true],"cvmm-large":["https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/HTQT1.jpg",854,466,false],"cvmm-small":["https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/HTQT1-130x95.jpg",130,95,true],"full":["https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/HTQT1.jpg",854,466,false]},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15035","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15035"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15035\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15036,"href":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15035\/revisions\/15036"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/14677"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15035"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15035"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nafosted.gov.vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15035"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}