V\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 28 th\u00e1ng 8, Exxon Mobil \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 b\u00e1o c\u00e1o \u201cTri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng N\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi n\u0103m 2050 (Phi\u00ean b\u1ea3n 2023)” c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Kh\u00f4ng gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a l\u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng v\u00e0 ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a ch\u00ednh th\u1ed1ng v\u1ec1 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u00e1i t\u1ea1o c\u1ee7a IPCC v\u00e0 IEA, quan \u0111i\u1ec3m sau \u0111\u00e2y \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
C\u00c1C Y\u1ebeU T\u1ed0 C\u01a0 B\u1ea2N C\u1ee6A TH\u1ebe GI\u1edaI<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch t\u00ednh to\u00e1n ng\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e1c gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau t\u1eeb k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n 1,5\u2103 c\u1ee7a IPCC v\u00e0 k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n ph\u00e1t th\u1ea3i r\u00f2ng b\u1eb1ng 0 c\u1ee7a IEA n\u0103m 2050 \u0111\u1ec3 m\u00f4 t\u1ea3 c\u00e1c vi\u1ec5n c\u1ea3nh trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai. Ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ec1 l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 gia t\u0103ng ch\u01b0a t\u1eebng c\u00f3 v\u1ec1 hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, \u0111\u1ed5i m\u1edbi v\u00e0 thay \u0111\u1ed5i c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7, \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0o l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c carbon th\u1ea5p v\u00e0 c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch gi\u1ea3m thi\u1ec3u kh\u00ed nh\u00e0 k\u00ednh to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. Tuy nhi\u00ean, IEA th\u1eeba nh\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi th\u1ef1c kh\u00f4ng \u0111i theo qu\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ea1o n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n D\u00e2n s\u1ed1 th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi s\u1ebd t\u0103ng t\u1eeb 7,8 t\u1ef7 ng\u01b0\u1eddi v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2021 l\u00ean 9,7 t\u1ef7 ng\u01b0\u1eddi v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2050. 65% m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng l\u00e0 \u1edf Ch\u00e2u Phi v\u00e0 Trung \u0110\u00f4ng, v\u00e0 25% \u1edf Ch\u00e2u \u00c1 Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng. M\u1ee9c t\u0103ng \u1edf c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc OECD ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 3%.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n M\u1ee9c ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ea7u ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3m \u1edf c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, nh\u01b0ng \u1edf c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n, m\u1ee9c ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 n\u00e0y s\u1ebd t\u0103ng l\u00ean khi h\u1ecd h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111\u1ebfn c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n m\u1ee9c s\u1ed1ng.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Nhu c\u1ea7u n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u s\u1ebd t\u0103ng 15% v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2050, do m\u1ee9c ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u1edf c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00f3 thu nh\u1eadp trung b\u00ecnh v\u00e0 \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n t\u0103ng nhanh g\u1ea5p 5 l\u1ea7n so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n GDP to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u s\u1ebd t\u0103ng g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2050. T\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng \u1edf c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00f3 thu nh\u1eadp trung b\u00ecnh v\u00e0 \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n cao h\u01a1n g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n. V\u00e0o n\u0103m 2050, t\u1ed5ng GDP c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00f3 thu nh\u1eadp trung b\u00ecnh v\u00e0 \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ea1t 55% t\u1ed5ng GDP c\u1ee7a th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n M\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng GDP \u1edf Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 so s\u00e1nh v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng c\u1ee7a t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n D\u00e2n s\u1ed1 thu\u1ed9c t\u1ea7ng l\u1edbp trung l\u01b0u tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn s\u1ebd t\u0103ng nhanh. Ch\u00e2u \u00c1-Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng s\u1ebd ch\u1ee9ng ki\u1ebfn m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng cao nh\u1ea5t, v\u1edbi Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9, m\u1ed7i n\u01b0\u1edbc d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn s\u1ebd c\u00f3 kho\u1ea3ng 1 t\u1ef7 ng\u01b0\u1eddi t\u1ea7ng l\u1edbp trung l\u01b0u v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2030. \u0110\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u1eefng m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau n\u00e0y, vi\u1ec7c ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn v\u1edbi n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng s\u1ebd l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 quan tr\u1ecdng.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ee7a th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ec3 c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n m\u1ee9c s\u1ed1ng \u1edf c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00f3 thu nh\u1eadp trung b\u00ecnh v\u00e0 \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n NHU C\u1ea6U N\u0102NG L\u01af\u1ee2NG: C\u00c1C N\u01af\u1edaC PH\u00c1T TRI\u1ec2N TRUNG B\u00ccNH V\u00c0 C\u00c1C N\u01af\u1edaC \u0110ANG PH\u00c1T TRI\u1ec2N S\u1ebc TH\u00daC \u0110\u1ea8Y NHU C\u1ea6U N\u0102NG L\u01af\u1ee2NG<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Nhu c\u1ea7u n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2050 s\u1ebd t\u0103ng kho\u1ea3ng 15% so v\u1edbi n\u0103m 2021 do t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 v\u00e0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u0110i\u1ec7n l\u00e0 ng\u00e0nh c\u00f3 nhu c\u1ea7u n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t v\u00e0 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng ng\u00e0nh s\u1ebd t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng nhanh nh\u1ea5t, nh\u1edd \u0111i\u1ec7n kh\u00ed h\u00f3a \u1edf c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00f3 thu nh\u1eadp trung b\u00ecnh v\u00e0 \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Trung t\u00e2m nhu c\u1ea7u n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng s\u1ebd chuy\u1ec3n sang c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00f3 thu nh\u1eadp trung b\u00ecnh v\u00e0 \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n, n\u01a1i t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 v\u00e0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u1ec1u cao, v\u00e0 t\u1ef7 tr\u1ecdng nhu c\u1ea7u n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u1edf c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc kh\u00f4ng thu\u1ed9c OECD trong nhu c\u1ea7u to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ea1t 70% v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2050.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n N\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u00e1i t\u1ea1o v\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec7n h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n s\u1ebd ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n, cung c\u1ea5p 70% nhu c\u1ea7u gia t\u0103ng.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean s\u1ebd m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e1p \u1ee9ng kho\u1ea3ng 30% t\u1ed5ng nhu c\u1ea7u v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2050.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Than s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n quan tr\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00f3 thu nh\u1eadp trung b\u00ecnh v\u00e0 \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n, nh\u01b0ng th\u1ecb ph\u1ea7n to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng ch\u1ec9 d\u01b0\u1edbi 15% khi Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n chuy\u1ec3n sang c\u00e1c ngu\u1ed3n n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng carbon th\u1ea5p nh\u01b0 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u00e1i t\u1ea1o, n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n v\u00e0 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n CUNG C\u1ea4P N\u0102NG L\u01af\u1ee2NG<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n C\u00e1c ngu\u1ed3n n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u00edt carbon: gi\u00f3\/m\u1eb7t tr\u1eddi, h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n v\u00e0 nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u sinh h\u1ecdc s\u1ebd ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n nhanh nh\u1ea5t.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n D\u1ea7u m\u1ecf ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c \u0111\u00f3ng vai tr\u00f2 quan tr\u1ecdng nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ti\u1ec7n v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i v\u00e0 nguy\u00ean li\u1ec7u h\u00f3a h\u1ecdc, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi v\u1eabn l\u00e0 ngu\u1ed3n cung c\u1ea5p n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng s\u01a1 c\u1ea5p l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t. T\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng nhu c\u1ea7u d\u1ea7u s\u1ebd t\u1eadp trung \u1edf c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00f3 thu nh\u1eadp trung b\u00ecnh v\u00e0 \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n, trong \u0111\u00f3 c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc ch\u00e2u \u00c1 – Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng chi\u1ebfm 60% m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng nhu c\u1ea7u v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2050. Nhu c\u1ea7u d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn s\u1ebd t\u0103ng 15 tri\u1ec7u th\u00f9ng\/ng\u00e0y v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2050. Trung \u0110\u00f4ng l\u00e0 trung t\u00e2m s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t d\u1ea7u th\u00f4ng d\u1ee5ng v\u00e0 s\u1ebd xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u 70% s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2050. S\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u1ea7u \u0111\u00e1 phi\u1ebfn B\u1eafc M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 NGL (kh\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean h\u00f3a l\u1ecfng) li\u00ean quan s\u1ebd t\u0103ng 50% t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2021 \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103m 2030, khi\u1ebfn B\u1eafc M\u1ef9 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh qu\u1ed1c gia xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u r\u00f2ng nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u h\u00f3a l\u1ecfng.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Kh\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean r\u1ea5t c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t ngu\u1ed3n \u0111i\u1ec7n v\u00e0 nhi\u1ec7t c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p \u00edt carbon, v\u00e0 nhu c\u1ea7u s\u1ebd t\u0103ng l\u00ean. L\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ngu\u1ed3n t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean d\u1ed3i d\u00e0o v\u00e0 \u0111a n\u0103ng, n\u00f3 s\u1ebd ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 ngu\u1ed3n n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng s\u01a1 c\u1ea5p n\u00e0o kh\u00e1c. Kho\u1ea3ng m\u1ed9t n\u1eeda nhu c\u1ea7u kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng l\u00ean s\u1ebd d\u00e0nh cho s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u0111i\u1ec7n v\u00e0 40% cho s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 nhu c\u1ea7u than to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c cho l\u00e0 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ec9nh v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2014 nh\u01b0ng n\u00f3 v\u1eabn quan tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc kh\u00f4ng thu\u1ed9c OECD. Nhu c\u1ea7u than \u1edf Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n kh\u00e1c \u1edf khu v\u1ef1c ch\u00e2u \u00c1 – Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng s\u1ebd t\u0103ng g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2050.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Than s\u1ebd \u0111\u00e1p \u1ee9ng 14% nhu c\u1ea7u n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2050 v\u00e0 chi\u1ebfm 27% l\u01b0\u1ee3ng kh\u00ed th\u1ea3i CO2 trong l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n International Nuclear Energy Development of Japan (JINED)<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" V\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 28 th\u00e1ng 8, Exxon Mobil \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 b\u00e1o c\u00e1o \u201cTri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng N\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi n\u0103m 2050 (Phi\u00ean b\u1ea3n 2023)” c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh. Kh\u00f4ng gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a l\u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng v\u00e0 ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a ch\u00ednh th\u1ed1ng v\u1ec1 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u00e1i t\u1ea1o c\u1ee7a IPCC v\u00e0 IEA, quan \u0111i\u1ec3m sau \u0111\u00e2y \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":12117,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11732","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-chuyen-muc-tin-dien-hat-nhan-nhat-ban"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vinatom.gov.vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11732","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vinatom.gov.vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vinatom.gov.vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vinatom.gov.vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vinatom.gov.vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11732"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/vinatom.gov.vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11732\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12118,"href":"https:\/\/vinatom.gov.vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11732\/revisions\/12118"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vinatom.gov.vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12117"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vinatom.gov.vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11732"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vinatom.gov.vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11732"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vinatom.gov.vn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11732"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}